Friday, June 1, 2018


A friend from Raleigh sent me this in a email and I'm reprinting it because it's important.  

"John Davis is a political analyst who has followed North Carolina politics for 32 years. He is one of the state’s leading authorities on evaluating the strengths of candidates and predicting the outcome of political races."

~  ~  ~  ~  ~  ~  ~  ~  ~  ~  ~  ~  ~  ~  ~  ~  ~  ~

John Davis is a political analyst who has followed North Carolina politics for 32 years. He is one of the state’s leading authorities on evaluating the strengths of candidates and predicting the outcome of political races.

June is Pivotal Month with Key SCOTUS Decisions, Primaries, Indictments, Inspector General & Korea

May 31, 2018         Vol. XI, No. 8        9:13 am

Hang on to your hats, June is going to be a wild ride!

Hang on to your hats, ladies and gentlemen, June is going to be a wild political ride.

Every single week in June, major U.S. Supreme Court decisions will be announced. Every Tuesday in June, primaries will be held. Globally significant talks between the U.S. and North Korea are in June.

In June, we will likely see more indictments resulting from Special Counsel Robert Mueller’s probe into whether the Trump campaign colluded with the Russian government during the 2016 presidential race. But will the June indictments be close enough to home to have any political fallout?

I doubt it. After all, Mueller already announced in April that President Trump was not a criminal target in the investigation. And then there is this: Jared Kushner, Trump’s son-in-law, had his full security clearance restored (after 7-hours with Mueller team) in May. Ivanka Trump’s full security clearance was restored in May.

We will also likely see a report in June by Department of Justice Inspector General Michael Horowitz critical of how the FBI handled the Hillary Clinton email investigation. That report will give President Trump all the Twitter ammunition he needs to discredit the Justice Department and the FBI, offsetting any political fallout from the Russian collusion probe.

By the way, a hearing has been scheduled by the U.S. Senate Judiciary Committee for June 5 at 10 AM titled, “Examining the Inspector General’s First Report on Justice Department Decisions Regarding the 2016 Presidential Election.”

May was a Positive Month for the Trump Referendum

May turned out to be a great month for the president. Here are some of the highlights:
  • Gallup announced that 67% Americans say now is a good time to find a good job (only 45% during Obama Administration and 47% during GW Bush Administration)
  • CBS News poll showed 68% of Americans credit Trump for economy
  • Trump’s Real Clear Politics 44% “Job Approval” (respectable/trending upward)
  • Unemployment dropped to 3.9%, lowest in 17 years
  • African-American and Hispanic unemployment set record lows
  • Gina Haspel sworn in as first woman to head CIA
  • U.S. opened embassy in Jerusalem
  • Three Americans were released from North Korean prisons
  • American Josh Holt was released from prison in Venezuela
  • Jack Johnson (1878-1946), first black heavyweight champ, was pardoned
  • Signed executive orders rolling back civil service protections
  • Stormy Daniels and her lawyer lost credibility
And of course, the U.S.- North Korean Summit on denuclearization and Korean reunification was salvaged in May, now back on track for June 12.

June is busiest month of the year for primaries and SCOTUS decisions

June is the busiest month of the year when it comes to the political elections calendar, with 17 states holding primary races. By comparison, there are none in July. However, 16 states have primaries in August. There are five more in September. Here is the June list:
  • June 5: California, Montana, N Jersey, Alabama, S Dakota, Mississippi, N Mexico and Iowa
  • June 12: Primaries in North Dakota, Virginia, Nevada, South Carolina, Maine
  • June 19: Washington, DC
  • June 26: Utah, Colorado, Maryland, Oklahoma
June is the final month of this term of the U.S. Supreme Court. Major decisions coming in June include everything from abortion and religious freedom to reapportionment and the Trump travel ban.

SCOTUS to decide Trump travel ban and LGBT rights to a wedding cake

Major U.S. Supreme Court decisions coming in June deal with privacy rights to cell phone data, state and local sales taxes on internet purchases, and when it’s permissible for a state to purge inactive voters from the registration rolls.

Here are a few decisions coming in June of interest to most North Carolinians:
  • EXTREME PARTISAN GERRYMANDERING: Is it constitutional for the legislative majority in a state that is roughly 50%/50% Republicans and Democrats to draw their party a 75%/25% “extreme partisan advantage” in the number of friendly congressional districts?
  • LGBT RIGHTS VS. RELIGION: Is it constitutional for a conservative Christian baker to refuse to make a wedding cake for a gay couple because of religious convictions?
  • TRUMP TRAVEL BAN: Do presidents have the constitutional authority under U.S. immigration laws to ban travelers from countries where terrorist activity is heavily concentrated, even if all the countries banned are predominantly Muslim?
The biggest political prize of 2018 is the U.S. Senate majority (now a 51/49 Republican), because the U.S. Senate will decide the next U.S. Supreme Court justice. Each U.S. Senate candidate running in the fall 2018 races will be forced to take a stand on the Supreme Court’s decisions coming out in June.

Bottom line: The 2018 midterm elections are coming down to the highly anticipated Democratic wave versus the Trump seawall of successes. The economy/jobs/wages. Government reform/draining the swamp. Trade deals. Military might. North Korean denuclearization and reunification with South Korea. All now building towards a positive referendum on the White House this fall.

But, that could all change in June.

Politically, June is on track to becoming the most consequential month of the midterm election year.

Hang on to your hats!

- End –

Thank You for Reading the John Davis Political Report!

John N. Davis

SUBSCRIBE TODAY: An annual subscription to the John Davis Political Report is $245. Subscribe online or mail your check to John Davis Consulting, LLC, P.O. Box 30714, Raleigh, NC, 27622.

2018 SPEECH: “Time to Yield What is Impossible to Keep”

Book John Davis here for 2018 professional meetings. His speech, “Time to Yield What is Impossible to Keep,” identifies the political trends that suggest the likely 2018 winners.

Thursday, May 31, 2018