"To those Americans whose support I have yet to earn, I may not have won your vote tonight, but I hear your voices. I need your help. And I will be your president, too."
— Barack Obama
BLACKS: Obama captured 95% of the black vote in 2008 and while that may drop a tiny bit, he will still get 90% of the black vote – just because.
HISPANICS/ORIENTALS: 66% of Latinos voted for Obama in 2008; 61% of Asians did, and 65% of ‘OTHER’ voted for him. This won’t change by much in 2012
UNIONS: Unless something major happens this summer to the way unions operate, the vast majority of union money AND UNION VOTES will go to Obama. Unions cannot afford to lose their control, and Obama is definitely in their camp – and vice versa.
GOVERNMENT EMPLOYEES: Number of Full-Time Federal Employees - 2,518,101; Part-Time - 250,785; Full-Time State - 3,818,577 ; Part-Time - 1,451,002 ; Full-Time Local - 11,039,250 Part-Time - 3,383,976
TOTAL - 22,461,691
2008 US Population (est) - 304,059,724
% of Gov't employees - 7.38%
Based on the total pay/benefits package, anyone thinking these 22 million people will vote for smaller government, please raise your hand. [Side note – for another blog - this means that there's ONE government employee for every 13.5 people in the country.]
WOMEN: 55% of all women voted for Obama in 2008. Unmarried women are now responsible for a whopping 36 percent of all births, according to the latest numbers from the U.S. Census Bureau. For many of these, the government has replaced the security of a father in the home. Women vote for economic SECURITY 70/30 over ideology. (Men vote for economic OPPORTUNITY)
SCHOOL TEACHERS/school personnel: According to the Census Bureau there are 6.2 million TEACHERS – this does not include others that work in the education field – Administration, support people. How will the vast majority vote? See ‘Unions’ above.
STUDENTS: The U.S. Department of Education shows 4,861 colleges and universities with 18,248,128 students in 2007 – assuming 35% are over 21/grad students eligible to vote, that’s a population of 6,386,844 WHO COULD VOTE – if half voted Democrat… adds up
ANTI-WAR CROWD: (this is ironic as hell) 25% of all citizens opposed the wars in Afghan, Iraq and North Africa
FRINGE GROUPS: Tree huggers/environmentalists, Hollywood, Gay/lesbian/transgender, just to name a few
YELLOW DOG DEMOCRATS, SENIORS (45% in 2008) , JEWS (77% in 2008 – would someone please explain THIS to me – how a man who is CLEARLY anti-Israel can garner this kind of support! And his throwing Israel under the bus this week may cost him, but not enough)
REPUBLICAN CONTROL OF THE HOUSE OF REPRESENTATIVES: If they can force him to the center; lower the unemployment rate, and reduce the deficit – Obama will get the credit…. Shades of Clinton in 1996
And last but not least – NO PRIMARY CHALLENGE AND A WAR CHEST EXCEEDING A BILLION DOLLARS